Partial displacement of commercial boiler space heating with air-to-water heat pumps

August 19, 2026 by Sammie Lundin and Connor Jansen

Hydronic heating systems fueled by gas boilers serve most of the largest commercial and multifamily buildings in Minnesota. Finding ways to move these systems from natural gas to efficient, all-electric alternatives is a big challenge. Air-to-water heat pumps are a promising solution when thoughtfully integrated to meet the high heating demands of northern climate buildings.

Luckily, we don’t have to fully replace gas boilers to make headway on carbon emissions. By focusing on heating demands when these systems operate best, smaller systems sized for a proportion of peak loads, outside of the coldest of outdoor temperatures, can still displacement a high proportion of the annual heating hours.

This study will explore cost-effective approaches for Minnesota to optimize the displacement of annual heating load from gas boilers with electrified heating from AWHPs. Building on industry leading installations in other cold-climate regions such as Massachusetts and New York, this research will serve as a foundational research for AWHPs in the Midwest, equipping Minnesota with the data and confidence it needs to take action to scale up this solution.

This research was made possible by a grant from the Minnesota Department of Commerce, Division of Energy Resources through the Conservation Applied Research and Development (CARD) program, which is funded by Minnesota ratepayers.